July Inflation Report: Your Quick Guide to Winners and Losers at Checkout (Price Changes by Category)

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in July 2025, matching June’s pace, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monthly inflation increased 0.2%, slightly below economists’ forecasts.

While overall inflation appears stable, the numbers hide growing cost pressures linked to new tariffs and immigration restrictions under President Donald Trump’s policies.

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July 2025 Inflation Data

• Headline CPI: +2.7% vs. July 2024

• Monthly change: +0.2%

• Core CPI (excludes food & energy): +3.1% – fastest rise since Feb. 2023

• Core commodities: +0.2% for the second month in a row

Price Changes by Category

Lower Prices:

• Groceries: -0.1%

• Gasoline: -0.5%

Higher Prices:

• Coffee: +2.8%

• Ground beef: +2.4%

• Dining out: Increased

• Apparel, home furnishings, appliances: Expected to rise further from tariffs

Impact of Tariffs & Immigration Policy

• Tariffs: New trade measures as of Aug. 6 could cost U.S. households $2,400 annually.

• Businesses may still be selling pre-tariff stock, delaying full price impact.

• Immigration restrictions: Causing labor shortages in industries like personal care, dry cleaning, and pet grooming, pushing wages, and service prices higher.

Trade Tensions Adding Pressure

• New reciprocal tariffs on imports from 60+ countries and the EU took effect Aug. 7.

• Economists see early signs of tariff-related price increases but not yet enough to alarm the Federal Reserve.

What’s Next for Interest Rates?

With inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers will review the data at the September meeting.

Analysts say July’s numbers are unlikely to stop an expected rate cut next month.

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